As the saying goes, ‘When the herd moves, it moves.’ This was how Boris Johnson characterized the shift of his own MPs turning against him during his ousting from power in 2022.
Once again, the political landscape is witnessing MPs grappling with the decision of potentially dethroning Keir Starmer as his hold on power faces a critical test. The pace of events is rapid, and the final outcome remains uncertain.
The atmosphere turned somber in Downing Street on Monday evening as the steady stream of MPs urging the Prime Minister to step down showed no signs of abating. Concurrently, a series of resignations within the junior government ranks fueled speculations of a coordinated uprising. The unfolding of events over the next 24-48 hours will be pivotal.
Despite the absence of consensus among MPs regarding a potential successor, the momentum in Westminster appears to be shifting towards Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, as anxious MPs seek a path out of electoral stagnation by looking towards the north.
There is a growing buzz among MPs for the PM to outline a departure timeline, which essentially implies providing Burnham with an opportunity to re-enter Parliament.
Burnham enjoys remarkable popularity among voters at a time when public sentiment towards most politicians is negative. Furthermore, the obstacle of securing approval from Labour’s governing National Executive Committee (NEC) for his return to Westminster seems to be diminishing.
Angela Rayner, the former Deputy PM, has thrown her support behind Burnham’s parliamentary comeback, having recently held private discussions with him. However, uncertainties loom as she awaits the outcome of an HMRC investigation into her tax affairs, stemming from admitted underpayment on her coastal property.
While speculation abounds, some MPs who had initially backed Rayner express concerns that her tax issue may prove insurmountable, even if HMRC exonerates her. In such scenarios, there is a possibility of her aligning with Burnham, unless challenged by Wes Streeting in an early bid to obstruct Burnham’s candidacy.
One of the ministerial aides who tendered resignation on Monday, working under the Health Secretary’s jurisdiction, maintains that he does not intend to instigate any drastic actions.
The situation remains fluid. Downing Street is optimistic about the PM weathering the storm and delivering a unifying address on Wednesday to rally MPs.
Nevertheless, the Prime Minister’s fate now lies in the hands of his Cabinet and the Parliamentary Labour Party.
